2011 - Supply and Demand
Alec Bond
The world’s population is growing rapidly, particularly in emerging markets. Figures from the United Nations Population Division indicate that by 2050 the number of people on the planet may exceed nine billion, a 50% increase on the six billion population in 2005.
With increasing pressure to produce affordable food, farmers are reacting by looking to increase output. Whether this be mega sized dairy units or more intensive beef, sheep and cereals, demand is likely to increase. These changes have attracted their fair share of critics a number of whom seem opposed to scientific progress.
People’s food preferences are changing too. As a country’s standard of living improves, its eating habits tend to change, with meat and protein consumption often rising very sharply. This is exactly what is happening in India and China, where demand for pork, beef and chicken is growing. Since grain is the major input for the production of meat, this change of dietary habits leads to increased demand for grain. At the same time, rising demand for alternative energy sources like bioethanol increases competition for land and grain.
The battle lines are now drawn between those supporting high output farming and those that believe we need to return to those varieties and breeds that produce lower yields but require less input. It is likely that high output farming will thrive and produce the food for the growing population. In the developed world specialist low input producers will also fill niche markets for specialist products such as organically grown and GM Free.
UK farmers are uniquely placed to benefit from both high output and niche market production.
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